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US job code 51-4041High change by 2035

Machinists

Machines can already do 27% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 64%. The job changes before it disappears.

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Share of the work machines can do

Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050

100%75%50%25%20262035205027%Half: 2032

Machinists in 2026: the short answer

  • Today: machines can do 27% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
  • Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2032, and 64% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
  • Size: 287,050 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $58,750 a year.
  • Contact with people: it scores 64% for contact with people.
  • Also called: CNC Machinist (Computer Numeric Controlled Machinist), CNC Machinist (Computer Numerically Controlled Machinist), Gear Machinist, Machine Repair Person.
  • Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.

Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.

Machines can do today
27%of the tasks, 2026
By 2035
64%half the tasks by 2032
US median pay
$58,750a year, May 2025
US jobs
287k287,050 people
Contact with people
64%how people-facing
Step 1AnticipateWhat is changing? Free to everyone

How the work changes, task by task

The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.

TaskShare of the dayMachines can do2026 to 2035
Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders20%
20% to 60%
Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations13%
20% to 60%
Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers10%
20% to 60%
Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools7%
65% to 92%
Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products6%
55% to 85%
Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process6%
30% to 75%
Align and secure holding fixtures, cutting tools, attachments, accessories, or materials onto machines6%
20% to 60%
Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers4%
20% to 60%
Step 2AssessWhy should I care? Free to everyone

The skills this job runs on

The skills machinists use most, most used first.

Professionalism and work ethicPhysical and manualTrade craftsAnalysis and dataAdaptability and resilience

Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace

How much machinists rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, medium confidence.

  • Go-to problem solver4/10
  • Trust and reliability6/10
  • Know-how about the organisation4/10
  • Network and relationships3/10
  • Mentoring and developing others2/10
  • Culture and morale4/10
  • Initiative beyond the role4/10
  • Calm in a crisis4/10
  • Bridge between teams2/10
  • Reputation and influence2/10

Safer jobs nearby

Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.

Step 3ActWhat do I do about it? Free plan and up
What do I do about it

What should you do about it?

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Questions

When will machines do half of the tasks of Machinists?

Machines can do half of its tasks by 2032. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.

Will AI take the job of machinists?

Machines can do 27% of the tasks of machinists today and 64% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.

Sources and citing

Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 51-4041.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, medium confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.

Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Machinists: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/machinists/