Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric
Machines can already do 17% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 38%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 17% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2040, and 38% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 14,100 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $358,550 a year.
- Also called: General Surgeon, Hand Surgeon, Orthopaedic Surgeon, Orthopedic Surgeon.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operate on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patient's functions | 29% | 3% to 25% | |
| Diagnose bodily disorders and orthopedic conditions, and provide treatments, such as medicines and surgeries, in clinics, hospital wards, or operating rooms | 13% | 3% to 25% | |
| Diagnose or treat disorders of the musculoskeletal system | 9% | 3% to 25% | |
| Prepare case histories | 9% | 63% to 81% | |
| Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk | 7% | 3% to 25% | |
| Order and interpret the results of laboratory tests and diagnostic imaging procedures | 6% | 50% to 74% | |
| Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff | 5% | 9% to 26% | |
| Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure | 5% | 54% to 76% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric37% of tasks by 2035 · US median $300,080
- Veterinarians36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $130,100
- Podiatrists36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $160,300
- Nurse Anesthetists36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $236,590
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2040. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric?
Machines can do 17% of the tasks of orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric today and 38% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 29-1242.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/orthopedic-surgeons-except-pediatric/