Painters, Construction and Maintenance
Machines can already do 18% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 54%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Painters, Construction and Maintenance in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 18% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2034, and 54% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 225,190 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $49,400 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 80% for contact with people.
- Also called: Building Trades Painter, Commercial Painter, Facilities Painter, Highway Painter.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apply paint, stain, varnish, enamel, or other finishes to equipment, buildings, bridges, or other structures, using brushes, spray guns, or rollers | 37% | 20% to 60% | |
| Cover surfaces with dropcloths or masking tape and paper to protect surfaces during painting | 10% | 3% to 30% | |
| Fill cracks, holes, or joints with caulk, putty, plaster, or other fillers, using caulking guns or putty knives | 7% | 20% to 60% | |
| Smooth surfaces, using sandpaper, scrapers, brushes, steel wool, or sanding machines | 7% | 3% to 30% | |
| Apply primers or sealers to prepare new surfaces, such as bare wood or metal, for finish coats | 7% | 20% to 60% | |
| Erect scaffolding or swing gates, or set up ladders, to work above ground level | 4% | 3% to 30% | |
| Calculate amounts of required materials and estimate costs, based on surface measurements or work orders | 4% | 38% to 70% | |
| Read work orders or receive instructions from supervisors or homeowners to determine work requirements | 3% | 55% to 85% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills painters, construction and maintenance use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Upholsterers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $46,340
- Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $37,800
- Rock Splitters, Quarry52% of tasks by 2035 · US median $48,740
- Helpers--Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons53% of tasks by 2035 · US median $40,470
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Painters, Construction and Maintenance?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2034. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of painters, construction and maintenance?
Machines can do 18% of the tasks of painters, construction and maintenance today and 54% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 47-2141.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Painters, Construction and Maintenance: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/painters-construction-and-maintenance/