Physician Assistants
Machines can already do 30% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 51%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Physician Assistants in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 30% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2035, and 51% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 162,150 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $135,880 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 92% for contact with people.
- Also called: Cardiology Physician Assistant, Certified Physician Assistant (PA-C), Emergency Medicine Physician Assistant (Emergency Medicine PA), Family Practice Physician Assistant.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obtain, compile, and record patient medical data, including health history, progress notes, and results of physical examination | 20% | 56% to 76% | |
| Make tentative diagnoses and decisions about management and treatment of patients | 16% | 22% to 42% | |
| Examine patients to obtain information about their physical condition | 16% | 3% to 25% | |
| Instruct and counsel patients about prescribed therapeutic regimens, normal growth and development, family planning, emotional problems of daily living, and health maintenance | 10% | 32% to 50% | |
| Interpret diagnostic test results for deviations from normal | 7% | 66% to 80% | |
| Prescribe therapy or medication with physician approval | 7% | 45% to 72% | |
| Perform therapeutic procedures, such as injections, immunizations, suturing and wound care, and infection management | 7% | 3% to 25% | |
| Administer or order diagnostic tests, such as x-ray, electrocardiogram, and laboratory tests | 5% | 45% to 72% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills physician assistants use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Family Medicine Physicians50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $244,180
- General Internal Medicine Physicians50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $256,560
- Sports Medicine Physicians42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $265,930
- Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians49% of tasks by 2035 · US median $265,930
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Physician Assistants?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2035. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of physician assistants?
Machines can do 30% of the tasks of physician assistants today and 51% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 29-1071.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Physician Assistants: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/physician-assistants/