Security Guards
Machines can already do 27% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 58%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Security Guards in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 27% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2034, and 58% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 1,283,470 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $38,020 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 85% for contact with people.
- Also called: Armed Security Officer, Campus Security Officer (CSO), Custom Protection Officer (CPO), Customer Service Security Officer.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrol industrial or commercial premises to prevent and detect signs of intrusion and ensure security of doors, windows, and gates | 28% | 27% to 64% | |
| Monitor and authorize entrance and departure of employees, visitors, and other persons to guard against theft and maintain security of premises | 25% | 22% to 51% | |
| Circulate among visitors, patrons, or employees to preserve order and protect property | 10% | 27% to 64% | |
| Write reports of daily activities and irregularities, such as equipment or property damage, theft, presence of unauthorized persons, or unusual occurrences | 8% | 63% to 81% | |
| Answer alarms and investigate disturbances | 5% | 27% to 64% | |
| Answer telephone calls to take messages, answer questions, and provide information during non-business hours or when switchboard is closed | 5% | 32% to 50% | |
| Lock doors and gates of entrances and exits to secure buildings | 4% | 18% to 51% | |
| Warn persons of rule infractions or violations, and apprehend or evict violators from premises, using force when necessary | 4% | 3% to 25% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills security guards use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Fish and Game Wardens39% of tasks by 2035 · US median $74,060
- First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers55% of tasks by 2035 · US median $55,940
- Correctional Officers and Jailers38% of tasks by 2035 · US median $58,940
- First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $77,970
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Security Guards?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2034. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of security guards?
Machines can do 27% of the tasks of security guards today and 58% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 33-9032.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Security Guards: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/security-guards/