Rhodium Group
An independent research firm analysing China's economy and policy, energy and climate, and cross-border investment for investors, companies and governments.
At a glance
- Entity level
- Organisation
- Type
- Company (private)
- Also known as
- RHG
- Flagship output
- China Pathfinder (with the Atlantic Council)
- Category
- Strategic & country intelligence
- Also covers
- Macro-economic forecasting
- Tier
- Tier 2: Leading independent China economy and geopolitical-risk research house
- Headquarters
- New York, United States
- Coverage
- China economy and policy, energy and climate, geoeconomics
- Public access
- Mixed
- Latest activity seen
- 22 Dec 2025
- Evidence
- Active in 2025 to 26
How it produces intelligence
Data-driven analysts building independent datasets and estimates, e.g. alternative Chinese GDP estimates and investment trackers.
Risk themes
Focus regions
Links
What it publishes
| Output | Type | Cadence | Latest edition | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Pathfinder (with the Atlantic Council) | Index | Annual | Read report | ||
| China research (economy, industrial policy) | Other | Irregular | Read report | ||
| China's Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 | Annual outlook | Annual | Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 (Rosen, Wright, Melton, Smith) | 22 Dec 2025 | Read report |
Latest findings
Recent public risk calls by Rhodium Group, summarised in our own words. They are its views, not 311's. Follow each source for the original.
Estimates China's real growth in 2025 was only about 2.5-3%, roughly half the official figure, after fixed-asset investment collapsed in the second half.
22 Dec 2025 · Horizon: 2025 · Source: China's Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026Projects China's 2026 real GDP growth at roughly 1-2.5%, far below the IMF's 4.5%, with investment expected to keep falling.
22 Dec 2025 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: China's Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026Sees exports as the decisive swing factor for 2026, adding perhaps 1-1.5 points to growth, with downside if Europe or emerging markets resist Chinese trade practices.
22 Dec 2025 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: China's Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026Doubts Beijing's pledges to lift domestic demand will change spending; expects little fiscal stimulus and roughly flat government consumption.
22 Dec 2025 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: China's Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026
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Questions about Rhodium Group
What is Rhodium Group?
An independent research firm analysing China's economy and policy, energy and climate, and cross-border investment for investors, companies and governments.
How does Rhodium Group produce its intelligence?
Data-driven analysts building independent datasets and estimates, e.g. alternative Chinese GDP estimates and investment trackers.
Where is Rhodium Group based?
Rhodium Group is based in New York, United States.
What does Rhodium Group cover?
Its work covers macroeconomy, trade & supply chains, energy & commodities, climate & environment, geopolitics, with a focus on East Asia, China, North America.
Profile compiled by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit from public sources. Last checked 21 Oct 2026. Listing is not a ranking or an endorsement. Evidence source. Is this your organisation? Request a correction.