How the 311 trust check works
Every headline in the 311 Foresight Tower carries a trust check. It shows how much evidence sits behind the headline, so you can decide how much weight to give it. It checks the headline and the evidence it points to. It is not a verdict on the outlet or the people involved.
What the labels mean
| Confirmed | Strong evidence from a reliable source, and other outlets report the same story. |
|---|---|
| Well supported | Good evidence from a reliable source, usually with other outlets reporting it too. |
| Official source | Comes straight from the organisation concerned, such as a government, agency or company announcing its own news. Other outlets have not picked it up yet. |
| Partly confirmed | Other outlets carry the story too, but the headline itself gives limited detail. |
| Reported | Reported by an established news outlet. Other outlets in the Tower have not carried it yet. Most news starts this way. |
| Early report | Reported by a smaller or specialist outlet, and not yet carried by others in the Tower. A reason to watch for confirmation, not a sign that the story is wrong. |
| Unconfirmed | Used only when both checkers find a real reason for care: the headline rests on unnamed sources or rumour, makes a claim that departs from the record, uses strong wording the facts do not carry, or comes from a source with a record of fabrication. |
| Promotional | Reads as marketing or a press release rather than independent reporting. |
| Opinion | A view, argument or analysis. We do not score opinions as true or false. |
| Forecast | A claim about what will happen. We look at who makes it and how, not whether it will come true. |
How the score is built
Each factual claim gets a trust score from 0 to 100, made of five parts.
| Source | up to 25 | How reliable the original source of the claim is, from an official primary source or a wire service down to an aggregator or a site with a record of fabrication. |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence | up to 25 | What the headline points to: a named document or data set, a named person on the record, a named organisation, or unnamed sources. |
| Corroboration | up to 25 | How many independent outlets in the Tower report the same story within 48 hours. Near-identical copies of one report count once, and common words such as "AI" or "summit" are ignored when stories are matched. |
| Plausibility | up to 25 | Whether the claim fits official data and expert consensus. For a forecast we score its basis instead: who makes it, how, how specific it is, whether it states its uncertainty and whether the forecaster has a stake. |
| Framing | minus up to 15 | Hype, a lab or pilot result presented as finished, numbers without a base, emotional wording the facts do not carry, or a headline that claims more than such a story could support. |
Two caps keep the score honest: promotional material that no other outlet reports scores at most 49, and a surprising claim needs strong evidence and corroboration to score above 69. Scores of 85 and over are Confirmed and 70 to 84 Well supported. Below 70, the label describes where the story stands: Partly confirmed when other outlets carry it, Reported or Early report when one outlet has it so far, and Unconfirmed only when the checkers find a real reason for care.
How each headline is checked
- Two independent automated checkers, briefed separately, code every headline against the same rubric. Where they disagree, the more cautious result stands.
- Corroboration is counted from the Tower’s own archive of the last 48 hours, which covers 64 news editions in 62 countries.
- Labels are recalculated every hour, so a label can improve as other outlets report the story.
- Samples are reviewed by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit to keep the checkers consistent.
What it cannot do
The check works from the headline and the outlet, not the full article. A story may be reported by outlets the Tower does not read, so Reported and Early report mean that only one outlet in the Tower has the story so far. The label is a guide to the evidence, not a full fact check. If you think a label is wrong, E-Mail enquiries@311institute.com and we will look at it.
Questions
What is the 311 trust check?
A label on every headline in the 311 Foresight Tower that shows how much evidence sits behind it, from Confirmed to Early report, with opinion, forecasts and promotional material marked separately.
Does a low label mean a story is false?
No. It means the evidence we can see is limited so far. Most accurate stories start with one outlet. The label is a guide to how much weight to give a headline, not a verdict on the outlet or the people involved.
How often are labels updated?
Every hour. Corroboration is recounted each time, so a label can improve as other outlets report the same story.
Who designed the method?
The 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, using published practice in source grading, evidence assessment and forecast evaluation.
Method by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. Rubrics set 14 October 2026; live on the Foresight Tower from 22 October 2026. See the Tower live · The daily foresight brief