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Anthropic read their AI’s mind and it doesn’t predict the next word

For years everyone has said the latest AI's are "prediction" systems, predicting what the next word in a sentence is before writing it. But they were wrong.

Key takeaways

  • Circuit tracing is a relatively new technique that lets researchers track how an AI model builds its answers step by step, like following the wiring in a brain.
  • All in all, the team inspected 10 different behaviors in Claude.
  • Ask Claude to add 36 and 59, and instead of following the standard method, adding the ones place, carrying the ten, etc, it does something way weirder.
Cite or link to this article

Griffin, M. (2025) 'Anthropic read their AI’s mind and it doesn’t predict the next word', 311 Institute, 9 May. Available at: https://www.311institute.com/anthropic-read-their-ais-mind-and-it-doesnt-predict-the-next-word/ (Accessed: 1 October 2026).

The constant improvements Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies have been making to their models might lead you to think we've finally figured out how Large Language Models (LLMs) work. But nope, LLMs continue to be one of the least understood mass-market technologies ever. But Anthropic is attempting to change that with a new technique called Circuit Tracing, which has helped the company map out some of the inner workings of its Claude 3.5 Haiku model.

Circuit tracing is a relatively new technique that lets researchers track how an AI model builds its answers step by step, like following the wiring in a brain. It works by chaining together different components of a model. Anthropic used it to spy on Claude's inner workings. This revealed some truly odd, sometimes inhuman ways of arriving at an answer that the bot wouldn't even admit to using when asked.

All in all, the team inspected 10 different behaviors in Claude. Three stood out.

One was pretty simple and involved answering the question "What's the opposite of small?" in different languages. You'd think Claude might have separate components for English, French, or Chinese. But no, it first figures out the answer, something related to "bigness", using language-neutral circuits first, then picks the right words to match the question's language.

This means Claude isn't just regurgitating memorised translations, it's applying abstract concepts across languages, almost like a human would.

Then there's math. Ask Claude to add 36 and 59, and instead of following the standard method, adding the ones place, carrying the ten, etc, it does something way weirder. It starts approximating by adding "40ish and 60ish" or "57ish and 36ish" and eventually lands on "92ish." Meanwhile, another part of the model focuses on the digits 6 and 9, realizing the answer must end in a 5. Combine those two weird steps, and it arrives at 95.

However, if you ask Claude how it solved the problem, it'll confidently describe the standard grade-school method, concealing its actual, bizarre reasoning process.

Poetry is even stranger. The researchers tasked Claude with writing a rhyming couplet, giving it the prompt "A rhyming couplet: He saw a carrot and had to grab it." Here, the model settled on the word "rabbit" as the word to rhyme with while it was processing "grab it." Then, it appeared to construct the next line with that ending already decided, eventually spitting out the line "His hunger was like a starving rabbit."

This working backwards suggests LLMs might have more foresight than we assumed and that they don't always just predict one word after another to form a coherent answer. All in all, these findings are a big deal, they prove we can finally see how these models operate, at least in part.

Still, Joshua Batson, a research scientist at the company, admitted to MIT that this is just "tip-of-the-iceberg" stuff. Tracing even a single response takes hours and there's still a lot of figuring out left to do.

311 Intelligence

What this means for your organisation

An AI's explanation is not evidence.

Asked how it added 36 and 59, Claude described the grade-school method. Inside, it approximated and checked the last digit separately before reaching 95. Leadership teams should not treat a model's account of its own work as an audit trail.

Planning ahead changes the risk picture.

Claude chose "rabbit" as its rhyme before it wrote the line. That suggests large language models do not always predict one word after another. Teams that assume simple word by word behaviour should revisit those assumptions, and watch large concept models, which work one sentence at a time.

Interpretability is useful but early.

Anthropic's Joshua Batson called the findings "tip-of-the-iceberg" work, and tracing a single response takes hours. Explainable AI is rated Watch, while large language models are rated Act now. Use the models today, with independent checks on their outputs.

Three questions for your next leadership meeting

  1. Where do we accept an AI's own explanation instead of checking its result?
  2. Which of our AI uses would fail if the model planned ahead?
  3. What independent tests do we run on AI answers before acting on them?

The trends and technologies behind this story

From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.

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Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s article and 311 data. First published on Fanatical Futurist.

FAQ

Why does this matter?

For years everyone has said the latest AI's are "prediction" systems, predicting what the next word in a sentence is before writing it. But they were wrong.

Matthew Griffin

About the author

Matthew Griffin Founder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute

Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath."

Read full bio

Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath." 17-time best selling author of the "Codex of the Future" series, Matthew is the Founder, President and Futurist of the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures advisory firm working with royal households, world leaders, G7, G20, and G77 governments, NGOs, and multi-national mid and mega cap firms to help them explore, shape, and lead the next 50 years of business and society.

An award-winning YouTube creator with over a million followers, with an unrivalled global reach and impact, Matthew is a highly sought-after international keynote speaker, lecturer, and mentor who collaborates with global leaders through the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to shape pivotal initiatives such as the UN’s AI for Humanity programme, the United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN COP), and the World Economic Forum in Davos.

As the former Global Head of Cloud, National Security, and Enterprise Sales for companies including Atos, Dell-EMC, and IBM, Matthew has a proven track record of building multi-billion dollar business units and turning failing divisions into market leaders. His ability to identify, analyse, and communicate the implications of hundreds of emerging technologies and trends is unparalleled, and his insights are trusted by many of the world’s most respected organisations, including ABB, Accenture, Adidas, AON, ARM, BCG, Centrica, Citi, Coca-Cola, Dentons, Deloitte, Dow Jones, EY, Google, KPMG, Lego, Legal & General, LinkedIn, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, RWE, Samsung, Siemens AG and Siemens Energy, T-Mobile, UBS, VISA, Walmart, Workday, Worldpay and many others.

Regularly featured in the global media including the AP, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, Discovery, Forbes, Khaleej Times, Telegraph, TIME, ViacomCBS, WIRED, and the WSJ, Matthews mission is to help organisations create a fair and sustainable future whose benefits are shared by everyone irrespective of their ability, background, or circumstances.

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Sources and further reading

  1. Mapping mind language model anthropic.com
  2. Anthropic can now track the bizarre inner workings of a large language model technologyreview.com

Source: first published by the 311 Institute on 9 May 2025. Cite as: Griffin, M. (2025). Anthropic read their AI’s mind and it doesn’t predict the next word. 311 Institute. https://www.311institute.com/anthropic-read-their-ais-mind-and-it-doesnt-predict-the-next-word/

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