China’s PLA found shooting at drone swarms challenging
Militaries around the world are developing drone swarms that can swamp and destroy enemy targets, and in this first of a kind exercise China's PLA couldn't down them all.
Key takeaways
- In what seems to be a first the Chinese military, which has been testing its capabilities to counter enemy drone swarm attacks, has admitted that accurately hitting the small targets may prove difficult.
- A first round of anti-aircraft artillery launched against a drone swarm during a recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) training exercise achieved only 40 per cent damage, state broadcaster CCTV reported last week.
- China is among the world’s top military and civilian drone producers.
Cite or link to this article
Griffin, M. (2024) 'China’s PLA found shooting at drone swarms challenging', 311 Institute, 7 November. Available at: https://www.311institute.com/chinas-pla-found-shooting-at-drone-swarms-challenging/ (Accessed: 1 October 2026).
In what seems to be a first the Chinese military, which has been testing its capabilities to counter enemy drone swarm attacks, has admitted that accurately hitting the small targets may prove difficult.
A first round of anti-aircraft artillery launched against a drone swarm during a recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) training exercise achieved only 40 per cent damage, state broadcaster CCTV reported last week.
“Shooting at the drone swarms was still quite challenging due to their speed and small size, as well as their ability to change flight trajectories, making it easy for gunners to lose their targets,” Duan Xiaolong, from an unnamed regiment with the PLA Ground Force’s 77th Group Army, was quoted as saying.
China is among the world’s top military and civilian drone producers. In recent years, it has ramped up investment in the development of smarter and faster - including hypersonic - Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and other forms of drone technology as such aircraft play a growing role in modern combat.
Meanwhile, the United States, China’s main geopolitical rival, has also paced up drone delivery to its military with its Replicator Program and is working on drone strategies to counter growing Chinese defence capabilities.
What this means for your organisation
Small fast targets defeat guns.
The first round of anti-aircraft fire in the exercise caused only 40 per cent damage. Gunners lost targets because the drones were fast, small and able to change course. Any plan that rests on conventional guns alone needs testing against this.
Cheap swarms change the cost sums.
Militaries are shifting from a few costly weapons to millions of cheap, expendable drones. 311 expects this to be in wide use by 2028. China is among the top drone producers and the United States is speeding up its own drone supply.
Counter measures need several layers.
High-power microwave weapons break the electronics in many drones at once. They are at readiness level 6, with wide use expected by 2035. Swarm robotics and swarm intelligence are the attacker's tools, so defenders should study them as closely as they study the defences.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
- How well would our current defences cope with a fast, small swarm?
- Are we planning for cheap drones in the thousands, not dozens?
- Which counter-drone options should we test before wide use arrives?
The trends and technologies behind this story
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s article and 311 data. First published on Fanatical Futurist.
FAQ
Why does this matter?
Militaries around the world are developing drone swarms that can swamp and destroy enemy targets, and in this first of a kind exercise China's PLA couldn't down them all.
About the author
Matthew Griffin Founder, 311 Institute
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath."
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Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath." 17-time best selling author of the "Codex of the Future" series, Matthew is the Founder and Futurist in Chief of the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures advisory firm working with royal households, world leaders, G7, G20, and G77 governments, NGOs, and multi-national mid and mega cap firms to help them explore, shape, and lead the next 50 years of business and society.
An award-winning YouTube creator with over a million followers, with an unrivalled global reach and impact, Matthew is a highly sought-after international keynote speaker, lecturer, and mentor who collaborates with global leaders through the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to shape pivotal initiatives such as the UN’s AI for Humanity program, the United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN COP), and the World Economic Forum in Davos.
As the former Global Head of Cloud, National Security, and Enterprise Sales for companies including Atos, Dell-EMC, and IBM, Matthew has a proven track record of building multi-billion dollar business units and turning failing divisions into market leaders. His ability to identify, analyse, and communicate the implications of hundreds of emerging technologies and trends is unparalleled, and his insights are trusted by many of the world’s most respected organisations, including ABB, Accenture, Adidas, AON, ARM, BCG, Centrica, Citi, Coca-Cola, Dentons, Deloitte, Dow Jones, EY, Google, KPMG, Lego, Legal & General, LinkedIn, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, RWE, Samsung, Siemens AG and Siemens Energy, T-Mobile, UBS, VISA, Walmart, Workday, Worldpay and many others.
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Source: first published by the 311 Institute on 7 November 2024. Cite as: Griffin, M. (2024). China’s PLA found shooting at drone swarms challenging. 311 Institute. https://www.311institute.com/chinas-pla-found-shooting-at-drone-swarms-challenging/
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