The Future with Hannah Fry · Series 2 · Episode 3
The Future with Hannah Fry, Quantum Arms Race: what the evidence says about quantum computing
What the episode covers, where quantum computing stands on the 311 Starburst and what leaders should take from it.
What it covers
About the episode
Hannah Fry looks at the race between the United States and China to build powerful quantum computers, and what is at stake for security and science.
- Broadcaster
- Bloomberg Originals; BBC Two and BBC iPlayer (UK, 2026)
- Made by
- Bloomberg Media with Windfall Films
- Distributed by
- TVF International
- Episode
- Series 2, episode 3
Official episode page (Bloomberg Originals; BBC Two and BBC iPlayer (UK, 2026)) · More about the series
What the evidence says
Where quantum computing stands in 2026
The 311 Starburst maps when each emerging technology and trend is expected to reach wide use. These are the entries that match this subject, with their status today.
- Technology · ComputeQuantum Computing
Quantum computing uses the strange rules of very small particles to process information. For some tasks it could be far faster than the computers we use today.
- Expected wide use
- 2038
- Status in 2026
- Watch
- Readiness
- TRL 7 of 9
- Technology · SecurityPost Quantum Cryptography
Post-quantum cryptography means new secret codes made so that even a strong quantum computer should not be able to crack them.
- Expected wide use
- 2034
- Status in 2026
- Explore
- Readiness
- TRL 9 of 9
- Technology · ConnectivityQuantum Internet
A future network that links quantum computers and devices, using the odd rules of tiny particles to send information. It aims to be extremely hard to spy on.
- Expected wide use
- 2046
- Status in 2026
- Watch
- Readiness
- TRL 4 of 9
- Trend · Security TrendsQuantum Safe Encryption Deadlines
- Expected wide use
- 2030
- Status in 2026
- Prepare
Source: the 311 Starburst, researched by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (data built 2026-10-28). Status rings: Act now means wide use by 2027, Prepare 2028 to 2030, Explore 2031 to 2035, Watch 2036 or later. Explore the Starburst Centre.
311 analysis
What leaders should take from it
- Start moving to quantum-safe encryption now: deadlines are being set before large quantum computers exist.
- Data stolen today can be decrypted later, so protect long-lived secrets first.
- Treat quantum advantage in your sector as a 2030s question and track it, rather than buying early.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
Next steps
Take this subject to your leadership team
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Answers
Common questions
When will quantum computers be useful?
The 311 Starburst places quantum computing in its Watch ring, with expected wide use in 2038. Moving to post-quantum cryptography is the nearer task: deadlines are a Prepare trend.
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