Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
102countries
17codexes
Mobility and logistics sessions forBuyInAutoalan KeskusliittoSlovakiaTechLondon Borough of HounslowWISTA InternationalCorporate World Intelligence
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The Rail Industry Safety and Standards Board (RISSB) invited Matthew to keynote its annual Australasian Rail Safety Summit, where he was asked to present the Future of Rail 2070 and give the audience a deep future view of what the railways of the future will, or could, look like.
He spoke alongside industry figures who covered the future of cyber operations in the sector, interoperability, safety and skills. Matthew's role was to take the audience on a journey through the global and regional trends and technologies shaping the future of the rail industry and its ecosystem of partners.
"The future of rail is going to be anything but dull, and also anything but certain."Matthew Griffin, Australia, May 2023
He began with the rise of national and trans-continental High Speed Rail (HSR) networks, from 600kmh wirelessly powered Maglevs to the latest 2,500kmh Chinese T-Flight hyperloops. From there he moved on to the future of Web 3.0 enabled autonomous operations, the future of competition, and well beyond.
He also placed rail within the wider transport picture: new supersonic and hypersonic formats for both cargo and passengers, from aircraft and trains to rockets, alongside new AI powered transportation systems, revolutionary infrastructure construction technologies and many other innovations. His closing message was that the future of rail is going to be anything but dull, and anything but certain.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Speed will reset the network.
The session traced rail from 600kmh wirelessly powered Maglevs to 2,500kmh hyperloops. Our High Speed Rail trend shows China's 50,000 km network leading a steady build-out of fast trains, while hyperloop hopes fade. Plan for proven fast rail first and treat the faster formats as options to watch.
Rivals will come from outside rail.
Matthew linked rail to supersonic and hypersonic cargo and passenger travel, and to new competition. Our Cross-Industry Competition trend says companies are moving into other sectors, with wide use expected by 2028. Leaders should expect challengers that do not look like railways.
Autonomy raises the security and skills bar.
Web 3.0 enabled autonomous operations put more weight on cyber operations, one of the themes shared by the summit's other speakers. Our Cyber Skills Gap trend warns that teams lack the right skills, not just headcount. Autonomous cyber reasoning systems find software flaws, show they are real and fix them, and sit at readiness level 7.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which of our long-life assets could a faster rival network make obsolete?
Who outside rail could enter our market within a decade?
Do our cyber teams have the skills autonomous operations will demand?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does the Future of Rail 2070 session mean for organisations?
It tells rail operators and their partners to plan beyond the usual cycle. Faster networks, autonomous operations and new competitors will arrive together. The session was clear that the path will be neither dull nor certain, so plans need room to change.
How does High Speed Rail relate to this session?
It is the opening theme. Matthew began with national and trans-continental networks. Our trend data puts the action level at Act now, with China's 50,000 km network leading and hyperloop hopes fading.
How does cross-industry competition affect rail?
Matthew covered the future of competition alongside new transport formats. Our trend data says new rivals increasingly come from outside an industry, with wide use by 2028. Rail leaders should watch adjacent sectors as closely as other railways.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
311 offers a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. It runs in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Hundreds of emerging technologies, and what they mean.
The codex explores hundreds of emerging technologies and their implications for global culture, industry and society, the same breakthroughs that will decide what rail looks like by 2070.
