Invited by Sandra, CEO of the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, to keynote its annual European marketing summit in Nuremberg, back in person for the first time in more than two years.
Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
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Sandra, CEO of the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, asked Matthew to keynote the institute's annual European marketing summit in Nuremberg, which because of COVID-19 had not run in person for more than two years. The institute chose the End of Choice as its theme, and Matthew's task was to surface the innovations and business norms that are turning our freedom of choice into little more than an illusion.
We live with more choice than ever, he argued, but in an increasingly algorithmic society the act of choosing is all too often left to machines. Whether it is the biased corporate algorithms behind our smart devices or the ones behind our web searches, machines increasingly decide the best options for us, rightly or wrongly, and then ask us to choose between the options they have already picked.
"Are we really choosing for ourselves? Or are we all just mindlessly pressing the Buy button for goods that are at best a mediocre fit for our needs?"Matthew Griffin, Nuremberg, August 2022
That raises an uncomfortable question: are we really choosing for ourselves, or just pressing the Buy button on goods that are at best a mediocre fit for our needs? As we trust machines more and delegate more decisions to them in the name of convenience, our freedom to choose is quietly undermined.
Nor is this limited to consumer goods. Matthew showed how it is creeping into every part of society, from machines making buying decisions for themselves to hiring and firing decisions, and even the choice of lifelong partners. His closing warning was that this is only the tip of the iceberg and, unless we stay vigilant, the start of a very slippery slope.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Customers choose from a shortlist.
Machines now decide the best options and then ask people to pick between them. A customer may feel free while choosing from a set that was drawn up elsewhere. Leaders should ask who builds that shortlist for their market.
Bias sits inside the tools.
The session points to biased corporate algorithms behind everyday devices and searches. Algorithmic Bias is rated Act now, with wide use by 2023, as biased systems in hiring and welfare face lawsuits and audits. Algorithmic Audits, independent checks for bias and safety, are moving towards legal requirement and are rated Prepare.
Delegated decisions are spreading.
Organisations are handing more decisions to automated systems, while trust and regulation struggle to keep up. The Algorithmic Society trend is rated Act now, with wide use by 2024, and Algorithmic Decision Making is rated Prepare, with wide use by 2029. The talk warns that hiring, firing and even partner choice are already in scope.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which decisions in our business are already made or shortlisted by machines?
Could we explain and audit the algorithms that shape our hiring?
Where are we trading customer fit for convenience?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does the end of choice mean for organisations?
It means more decisions are being made before a person ever sees them. Customers, candidates and staff may be choosing from options a machine has already picked. Organisations need to know where this happens and who is accountable for the result.
How does the Algorithmic Society trend relate to this session?
The trend describes algorithms shaping jobs, benefits, news and relationships, while public unease grows. It matches the session's warning that machine choice reaches well beyond shopping. It is rated Act now, with wide use by 2024.
How does Algorithmic Bias relate to the keynote?
The keynote raises biased corporate algorithms as a reason choice is becoming an illusion. The trend adds that biased systems in hiring and welfare now face lawsuits and audits. It is rated Act now, with wide use by 2023.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Bots make 53% of web traffic.
311 Institute's Dead Internet Theory report finds bots make 53% of web traffic, yet people still do the buying, and prices what that means for reaching real customers to 2040. It is the commercial side of the algorithmic society this session described.
