Invited by Marcelino Castrillo, CEO of Shawbrook Bank, a London-based private bank that advises over half a million customers on their financial affairs.
Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
102countries
17codexes
Finance and banking sessions forAfricaONEStandard Chartered BankThe Institute of Internal AuditorsWolters KluwerCrown Prince CourtUAE Financial Markets Association
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Marcelino Castrillo, CEO of Shawbrook Bank, invited Matthew to speak. Shawbrook is a London-based private bank that advises over half a million customers on all aspects of their financial affairs, an increasingly difficult task as the world becomes more complex and disrupted and shifts from a US-centric to a multi-polar order. The rewards for getting it right are huge, and the lows for getting it wrong abyssal.
The keynote, titled ‘Risking It All’, was first given in person to an audience of three hundred at the London Saracens stadium. Matthew was asked to examine global STEEP trends (Societal, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political) from his 311 Institute Annual Trends Codex, then their impact on investors and individuals in the UK, and on the UK as a whole, as we race into a VUCA-MAX future whether or not we are shaping it.
"Today 55 percent of what happens to organisations comes from external sources, with CEOs and leaders now only controlling 45 percent of what happens to their organisations."Matthew Griffin, London, April 2024
His starting point: today 55 percent of what happens to organisations comes from external sources, leaving CEOs and leaders in control of only 45 percent, and roughly the same applies to individuals. The rising cost of living and inflation followed COVID-19, the supply chain snarl-ups and Russia's war in Ukraine, none of which any of us controlled. Pensions are at risk as China and the BRICS try to unseat the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and many people worry about their jobs as Silicon Valley releases ever more capable AIs.
As a country that relies on other parts of the world, the UK is pushed and pulled like a stick caught in a river's current. What happens to and within it is increasingly the direct and indirect result of other countries' actions and the downstream impact of trends, and that is what Matthew explored.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Most of your risk is external.
If 55 percent of what happens to an organisation comes from outside, then planning built only around internal choices is incomplete. Leaders hold 45 percent of the outcome. The rest needs scenarios, not forecasts.
Money and power are both shifting.
The session pointed to pressure on the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and a move from a US-centric to a multi-polar order. Central banks are slowly diversifying reserves away from the dollar, with gold the biggest winner. Pensions and long-term savings sit directly in the path of this change.
Shocks keep feeding on each other.
The rising cost of living followed COVID-19, supply chain snarl-ups and the war in Ukraine. Repeated supply shocks from war, energy and commodities are keeping inflation above central bank targets. Advisers and investors should expect more of this, not a return to calm.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which external shocks would hurt us most, and who owns that risk?
How exposed are our customers' savings to a weaker dollar?
What would we do if inflation stayed above target for years?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
It means accepting that 55 percent of what happens to an organisation comes from external sources. Leaders need plans for shocks they cannot control, and for a world moving from a US-centric to a multi-polar order.
How do global reserve currency wars relate to this session?
The session warned that pensions are at risk as China and the BRICS try to unseat the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Central banks are slowly diversifying reserves away from the dollar, with gold the biggest winner, and this trend is expected to be in wide use by 2035.
How does a multi-polar world relate to this session?
The UK relies on other parts of the world, so a shift of power from one dominant superpower to a wider set of rising powers directly affects what happens to and within it. This is why the keynote treats the UK as a stick caught in a river's current.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
311 offers a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector and delivered in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Hundreds of megatrends and microtrends, in one codex.
The 311 Institute Annual Trends Codex, the source for this session, brings together the hundreds of megatrends and microtrends shaping your world and everything you care about in one easy to use codex.
