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The Chairman of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the Middle East's largest bank with over $300 billion in assets, invited Matthew back to its annual leadership summit, where FAB leadership teams from around the world met virtually to explore the future and what it means for them. Matthew has worked with FAB for many years, from helping it launch the Middle East's first ETFs and thematic funds to its COP28 sessions.
Under the title The Second Half of the Chessboard, he asked the audience to think harder about the world being created and the world being left behind as we move towards a post car, post cow, post farm, post fossil fuel, post hacker and post software developer world. He also showed the shift from systems that analyse the past to systems that predict the future across new domains, with rising accuracy.
"The capability and performance leap between new generations of technology is so vast that increasingly we, as humans, are having problems understanding what they all mean for global business, culture, and society."Matthew Griffin, Virtual, April 2024
At the heart of the session was the chessboard itself: the point, already emerging today, where the leap in capability between generations of technology becomes so vast that people struggle to grasp what it means for business, culture and society, and so what the future could look like.
He finished by showing how technologies such as AI are reshaping how businesses are built and who, or what, builds them, and how leaders should think about competition and differentiation. Leaders from across wealth management and consumer banking used the summit to reaffirm their commitments to customers, responsible investing and the planet.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Capability leaps outrun understanding.
The session argued that the jump between technology generations is now so large that people struggle to read its effect on business, culture and society. Leaders who plan from last year's pace will misjudge what comes next. Exponential technologies keep reshaping the economy even as classic chip scaling slows, so the habit of linear planning is the first thing to question.
Prediction replaces analysis of the past.
Matthew showed systems moving from analysing what has happened to predicting what will happen, across new domains and with rising accuracy. For a leadership team, that changes what an advantage looks like. Judgement about the future becomes a product, not just a report.
Who builds the firm is changing.
The keynote asked who, or what, now builds a business, and how to stay different from rivals using the same tools. Some firms are already cutting management layers and widening spans of control. Leaders will need to learn and adjust as they go, rather than rely on command and control.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which of our assumptions still rely on a slower pace of change?
What would we do differently if our systems predicted rather than reported?
Where does our differentiation survive when every rival has the same tools?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
It means planning should assume that gaps between technology generations will keep widening. Organisations need to test their strategy against a world that is leaving some old industries behind, and decide how they will compete and stay different.
How does exponential technology relate to the chessboard idea?
The chessboard describes the point where growth becomes so large that people cannot grasp it. Exponentially improving technologies are the cause. They keep reshaping the economy even as classic chip scaling slows, and 311 rates the trend as Act now.
How does the flattening of middle management relate to this keynote?
Matthew asked who, or what, builds businesses now. Large firms are cutting management layers and widening spans of control, with wide use expected by 2027. It is one visible case of how the build and run of a company is changing.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Innovation re-invented for the exponential era.
How to Build Exponential Enterprises sets out what it takes to build an organisation that grows at the speed of change, the practical answer to the second half of the chessboard problem Matthew put to FAB's leaders.
