Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining
Machines can already do 28% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 69%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 28% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2032, and 69% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 34,480 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $57,430 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 61% for contact with people.
- Also called: Backhoe Operator, Dragline Oiler, Dragline Operator, Equipment Operator.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Move levers, depress foot pedals, and turn dials to operate power machinery, such as power shovels, stripping shovels, scraper loaders, or backhoes | 46% | 30% to 75% | |
| Operate machinery to perform activities such as backfilling excavations, vibrating or breaking rock or concrete, or making winter roads | 8% | 30% to 75% | |
| Set up or inspect equipment prior to operation | 7% | 3% to 30% | |
| Lubricate, adjust, or repair machinery and replace parts, such as gears, bearings, or bucket teeth | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Observe hand signals, grade stakes, or other markings when operating machines so that work can be performed to specifications | 5% | 45% to 85% | |
| Move materials over short distances, such as around a construction site, factory, or warehouse | 5% | 30% to 75% | |
| Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application | 3% | 45% to 80% | |
| Receive written or oral instructions regarding material movement or excavation | 3% | 30% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills excavating and loading machine and dragline operators, surface mining use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders60% of tasks by 2035 · US median $48,250
- Sailors and Marine Oilers57% of tasks by 2035 · US median $51,520
- Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers65% of tasks by 2035 · US median $60,600
- Highway Maintenance Workers62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,260
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2032. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of excavating and loading machine and dragline operators, surface mining?
Machines can do 28% of the tasks of excavating and loading machine and dragline operators, surface mining today and 69% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 47-5022.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/excavating-and-loading-machine-and-dragline-operators-surface-mining/