Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
Machines can already do 21% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 60%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 21% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2033, and 60% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 158,740 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $48,250 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 61% for contact with people.
- Also called: Automotive Painter (Auto Painter), Automotive Refinish Technician (Auto Refinish Tech), Coater Operator, Hand Sprayer.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spray prepared surfaces with specified amounts of primers and decorative or finish coatings | 15% | 20% to 60% | |
| Hold or position spray guns to direct spray onto articles | 9% | 30% to 75% | |
| Clean equipment and work areas | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Remove grease, dirt, paint, or rust from surfaces in preparation for paint application, using abrasives, solvents, brushes, blowtorches, washing tanks, or sandblasters | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Monitor painting operations to identify flaws, such as blisters or streaks, and correct their causes | 5% | 20% to 60% | |
| Disassemble, clean, and reassemble sprayers or power equipment, using solvents, wire brushes, and cloths | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Observe machine gauges and equipment operation to detect defects or deviations from standards, and make adjustments as necessary | 4% | 20% to 60% | |
| Remove materials, parts, or workpieces from painting or coating machines, using hand tools | 4% | 20% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills coating, painting, and spraying machine setters, operators, and tenders use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Sailors and Marine Oilers57% of tasks by 2035 · US median $51,520
- Painters, Construction and Maintenance54% of tasks by 2035 · US median $49,400
- Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons55% of tasks by 2035 · US median $61,290
- Upholsterers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $46,340
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2033. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of coating, painting, and spraying machine setters, operators, and tenders?
Machines can do 21% of the tasks of coating, painting, and spraying machine setters, operators, and tenders today and 60% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 51-9124.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/coating-painting-and-spraying-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders/