First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers
Machines can already do 26% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 56%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 26% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 11% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2033, and 56% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 130,760 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $58,430 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 81% for contact with people.
- Also called: Field Manager, Golf Course Superintendent, Grounds Crew Supervisor, Grounds Foreman.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct activities of workers who perform duties, such as landscaping, cultivating lawns, or pruning trees and shrubs | 10% | 10% to 27% | |
| Plant or maintain vegetation through activities such as mulching, fertilizing, watering, mowing, or pruning | 10% | 30% to 75% | |
| Monitor project activities to ensure that instructions are followed, deadlines are met, and schedules are maintained | 8% | 25% to 65% | |
| Schedule work for crews, depending on work priorities, crew or equipment availability, or weather conditions | 7% | 25% to 50% | |
| Tour grounds, such as parks, botanical gardens, cemeteries, or golf courses, to inspect conditions of plants and soil | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Provide workers with assistance in performing duties as necessary to meet deadlines | 6% | 3% to 30% | |
| Inspect completed work to ensure conformance to specifications, standards, and contract requirements | 4% | 3% to 30% | |
| Install or maintain landscaped areas, performing tasks such as removing snow, pouring cement curbs, or repairing sidewalks | 4% | 3% to 30% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills first-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $93,530
- First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers47% of tasks by 2035 · US median $49,100
- Coaches and Scouts48% of tasks by 2035 · US median $47,320
- Forest and Conservation Technicians50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $54,560
What should you do about it?
Open this job in the Workforce Starburst to see it for your country, then use these to act on it.
Watch This Job
Get told when the outlook for this job changes.
Free planSkills to learn next
The skills that make this job, or the next one, last longer.
In the StarburstCheck your readiness
Ten quick questions on how ready you are.
FreeAsk Vantage
Ask what this job means for you and get a sourced answer.
Free to askFutures Academy courses
Courses matched to your gaps.
Coming soonPay trend
Where pay for this job is heading.
Coming soonTeam plan
Every role in your team, side by side, with a plan for each.
Pro and CorporateShared workspace
Work through it with your team, with notes and decisions kept.
Pro and Corporate
Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2033. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of first-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers?
Machines can do 26% of the tasks of first-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers today and 56% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 37-1012.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-landscaping-lawn-service-and-groundskeeping-workers/