Pediatric Surgeons
Machines can already do 17% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 39%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Pediatric Surgeons in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 17% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2039, and 39% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 1,190 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $559,030 a year.
- Also called: Cardiovascular Surgeon, General Surgeon, Hand Surgeon, Physician.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operate on fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patients' functions | 29% | 3% to 25% | |
| Monitor patient's recovery, making follow-up visits and using postoperative assessment techniques, such as blood and imaging tests | 10% | 3% to 25% | |
| Examine fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents, and diagnose health issues to determine need for intervention, such as surgery | 7% | 3% to 25% | |
| Prepare case histories | 7% | 63% to 81% | |
| Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure | 5% | 54% to 76% | |
| Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff | 5% | 9% to 26% | |
| Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment | 5% | 36% to 58% | |
| Provide consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons | 5% | 3% to 25% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills pediatric surgeons use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric38% of tasks by 2035 · US median $358,550
- Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric37% of tasks by 2035 · US median $300,080
- Veterinarians36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $130,100
- Podiatrists36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $160,300
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Pediatric Surgeons?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2039. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of pediatric surgeons?
Machines can do 17% of the tasks of pediatric surgeons today and 39% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 29-1243.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Pediatric Surgeons: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/pediatric-surgeons/