Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers
Machines can already do 26% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 62%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 26% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2032, and 62% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 12,400 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $68,840 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 75% for contact with people.
- Also called: Brakeman, Carman, Fireman, Locomotive Switch Operator.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signal locomotive engineers to start or stop trains when coupling or uncoupling cars, using hand signals, lanterns, or radio communication | 11% | 25% to 50% | |
| Observe train signals along routes and verify their meanings for engineers | 11% | 40% to 80% | |
| Pull or push track switches to reroute cars | 10% | 20% to 60% | |
| Raise levers to couple and uncouple cars for makeup and breakup of trains | 7% | 3% to 30% | |
| Observe tracks from left sides of locomotives to detect obstructions on tracks | 7% | 40% to 80% | |
| Inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and handbrakes to ensure that they are securely fastened and functioning properly | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Observe signals from other crew members so that work activities can be coordinated | 6% | 25% to 50% | |
| Monitor trains as they go around curves to detect dragging equipment and smoking journal boxes | 4% | 30% to 75% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills railroad brake, signal, and switch operators and locomotive firers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Morticians, Undertakers, and Funeral Arrangers52% of tasks by 2035 · US median $55,010
- Crematory Operators58% of tasks by 2035 · US median $43,650
- Sailors and Marine Oilers57% of tasks by 2035 · US median $51,520
- Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders60% of tasks by 2035 · US median $48,250
What should you do about it?
Open this job in the Workforce Starburst to see it for your country, then use these to act on it.
Watch This Job
Get told when the outlook for this job changes.
Free planSkills to learn next
The skills that make this job, or the next one, last longer.
In the StarburstCheck your readiness
Ten quick questions on how ready you are.
FreeAsk Vantage
Ask what this job means for you and get a sourced answer.
Free to askFutures Academy courses
Courses matched to your gaps.
Coming soonPay trend
Where pay for this job is heading.
Coming soonTeam plan
Every role in your team, side by side, with a plan for each.
Pro and CorporateShared workspace
Work through it with your team, with notes and decisions kept.
Pro and Corporate
Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2032. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of railroad brake, signal, and switch operators and locomotive firers?
Machines can do 26% of the tasks of railroad brake, signal, and switch operators and locomotive firers today and 62% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-4022.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/railroad-brake-signal-and-switch-operators-and-locomotive-firers/