In this plenary session with the UK's National Security community and partners Futurist and Cyber Expert Matthew Griffin discusses the emergent threats facing nations worldwide, emergent cyber solutions, and shares his views on China's rise.
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About this panel
Firstly, thank you to Ollie Whitehouse, CTO of the National Cyber Security Center (NCSC), part of GCHQ, for asking me to take part CyberUK24’s plenary panel in Birmingham to discuss the “Future tech, future threat, future ready” theme of this years premier cyber and security summit. With thousands of professionals from around the world, including the Director of GCHQ, the Director of CISA, and cyber liaison for the White House Harry Coker, as well as the directors of India and Japans national security agencies the NCS and NISC, it was an honour to be in such esteemed company.
During our plenary session, which I shared with Sir Philip Knight, Head of the UK’s National Quantum Computing Strategy, Dame Angela McLean, and the director of NCS, I was asked to expand on my views of the future biological, chemical, and cyber threat landscapes, and expand on future Horizon 2 and 3 threat vectors, and give an overview on China’s progress and emerging technology strategy as it strives for technology independence and superiority in the coming decades.
When it comes to future threats the simple fact of the matter is that they’re everywhere, whether it’s the ability to wipeout selective portions of Humanity using $100 CRISPR kits, deceive and destroy the AI’s we’re busily embedding into our companies and products, or just simply use AI to design 40,000 new chemical weapons or so. All of which is before we get onto the topic of “System of Systems” autonomous AI agents … and many other things.
And then, when it comes to China, well, I think I did well to cover everything in the five minutes I had, but suffice to say they’re already ahead in 38 out of 44 key emerging technology fields and they’re accelerating, in part thanks to their $1.4 Trillion emerging technology funding package, and in part due to the sheer determination of the country’s leadership to push the boundaries of N+2 to N+4 emerging technologies. Technologies that include everything from Quantum Communications and Nil Communications, all the way through to the development of new advanced computer chips, novel unhackable metamaterials, and much more …
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Threats now cross three fields.
The session linked gene editing, chemistry and cyber risk, plus AI used to design 40,000 new chemical weapons or so. Attackers can also deceive the AI systems firms embed in their products. A leadership team should hold these in one risk view, not three separate ones.
Plan for China's lead.
China leads in 38 of 44 key emerging technology fields and is speeding up. Our research leadership trend shows China producing about twice the high-quality research of the US, with an action rating of Act now. Strategy that assumes a Western lead is out of date.
Autonomous agents widen exposure.
The panel raised System of Systems autonomous AI agents as a coming threat. Shared rules such as Model Context Protocol already let agents swap information, rated Act now, with wide use due by 2027. Quantum computing is rated Watch, with wide use around 2038, and Nil Communication is still early at TRL 2.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which of our products embed AI that an attacker could deceive?
Do our plans assume China leads in most emerging technology fields?
Who owns the combined biological, chemical and cyber threat view in our firm?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does the CyberUK24 plenary mean for organisations?
Threats are broad, fast and linked. Gene editing, AI-designed chemistry and attacks on embedded AI all reach beyond the security team. Leaders should widen their threat view and test how far their strategy depends on technology China now leads.
How does China's research leadership relate to the session?
The trend shows China producing about twice the high-quality research of the US, with wide use set for 2024 and an action rating of Act now. It fits the panel's point that China is ahead in 38 of 44 fields. Expect more breakthroughs to arrive from China first.
How do AI agent communication protocols relate to the session?
They are the shared rules, such as Model Context Protocol, that let AI agents find tools and swap information. That is the plumbing behind the autonomous agent systems the panel flagged as a threat. The item is rated Act now at TRL 8, with wide use by 2027.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
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Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
The dangers of a world where risk becomes systemic.
The codex explores the dangers of a world where global risk becomes systemic, the backdrop to the new risk categories Matthew put in front of KPMG's risk leaders.
