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311 Institute codex

The Future
of Insurance

What happens when global risk becomes systemic?

The future of insurance, and the dangers of a world where global risk becomes systemic.

The Future of Insurance cover

In short

What is the Future of Insurance Codex?

The Future of Insurance is a 67-page codex by Matthew Griffin, Founder of the 311 Institute, on how technology, megatrends and systemic risk will reshape insurers and the insurance market. The second edition, published in January 2019, includes 15 top insurance predictions, signs of disruption, the impact on lines of business and a tour of 18 industries.

Who it is for: It is for insurance, reinsurance and broking executives, underwriting, product and innovation teams, and regulators who need to see where risk and opportunity are heading.

Key findings

What does the codex say about the future of insurance?

  1. Disruption is speeding up. In the 1900s it took around 90 years to disrupt an industry, today it takes seven to ten years, and by 2035 the codex expects industries to be disrupted within two to five years.
  2. Insurance will face its own Uber moment. Today's insurtechs are disruptive and well capitalised, but none yet combines every attribute in a single package, so the codex sees the first tentative signs rather than the event itself.
  3. Over the longer term the codex expects insurers to replace front end and back end staff with engineers at a ratio of around 4:1 as they move towards fully autonomous organisations.
  4. As autonomous vehicles become commonplace, vehicle claims will fall and the emphasis will move from driver liability to product liability, while connected vehicles face new cyber, software and AI malfunction risks.
  5. Risk is becoming systemic. An attack on centralised internet systems such as DNS could have a continental effect, and quantum computing could help insurers model systemic risk patterns in cybersecurity, healthcare and the Internet of Things.

Bring the codex to your organisation

Want your leadership team ready for the future of insurance?

Book a keynote session, executive briefing or foresight workshop session built on this codex, or start with a free 15-minute expert call with Matthew Griffin.

Questions and answers

Questions people ask about the future of insurance

What is the future of insurance?

The future of insurance is more connected, data driven and automated, and it carries more systemic risk. The codex argues that because insurers protect every industry, shocks anywhere ripple back to them, and that the way insurance is structured, consumed and provisioned will be significantly, not incrementally, different.

How will AI change insurance?

AI will first help insurers automate and improve operational efficiency, then create new value across the front and back office. Over the longer term the codex expects insurers to replace staff with engineers at a ratio of around 4:1 and move towards fully autonomous organisations, which could threaten today's insurance cost models.

Will the insurance industry have an Uber moment?

The codex says yes, and that the first tentative signs are already visible. It argues that Uber is a formula built from thirty common business building blocks, and that the industry's Uber moment will come when a start up is disruptive, pioneering, relentless, ruthless, visionary and well capitalised in a single package.

What are the biggest risks facing insurers?

The codex names three disruptive threats: changing customer behaviours, the rate of innovation and a surge in insurtech start ups. It adds systemic risks such as attacks on the internet's core infrastructure, and warns that fully autonomous competitors and players from adjacent industries could arrive faster than incumbents expect.

Who wrote the Future of Insurance codex?

Matthew Griffin, futurist, keynote speaker and Founder of the 311 Institute, wrote the codex as part of his Codex of the Future series. The 311 Institute runs keynote sessions, executive briefings and foresight workshops on the future of insurance for insurers, reinsurers, brokers and their boards.

How do I get the Future of Insurance codex?

The codex is free to download from this page after a short form. It is a 67-page PDF, the second edition, published in January 2019. You can also book a free 15-minute expert call with Matthew Griffin to discuss what the future of insurance means for your organisation.

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