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311 Institute codex

The Future of
Exponential Disruption

How close are we to disrupting a whole industry in a day?

The rate of global disruption is accelerating. With creative machines and AI-driven autonomous companies in an increasingly digital and connected world, we can now see a point where global industries could be disrupted in a single day.

The Future of Exponential Disruption cover

In short

What is The Future of Exponential Disruption codex?

The Future of Exponential Disruption is an 89-page codex by Matthew Griffin, Founder, President and Futurist of the 311 Institute, that explains why disruption is accelerating exponentially and how close we are to disrupting whole industries in a day. The second edition, published in January 2022, covers exponential technologies, megatrends, creative machines and how to build exponential enterprises.

Who it is for: It is for CEOs, boards, strategy and innovation teams who need to see disruption coming, adapt to it and lead it.

Disruption is going exponential

Why is disruptive innovation accelerating so fast?

Ask almost anyone and they will tell you disruption is faster now than a decade ago, and that it will be faster still in another decade.

What many people don't realise is that as the world becomes more digital and connected, and machines more creative and intelligent, disruption will not just accelerate. It will accelerate exponentially.

What you will explore

What does The Future of Exponential Disruption codex cover?

01

The forces

What is accelerating disruption, and why.

02

The endgame

How whole industries could be disrupted in a single day.

03

How to lead it

How to see disruption coming, navigate it and lead it.

Key findings

What does the codex say about the future of disruption?

  1. Over the past century the average time it takes to disrupt a global industry has fallen from 90 years to just a few years, and the codex argues that soon even a few years will seem slow.
  2. Adoption is collapsing towards real time: it took 75 years for 50 million people to adopt the telephone, 19 days for Pokemon Go to reach the same milestone and just 6 days for 100 million people to adopt Call of Duty.
  3. Generative Artificial Intelligence, AI that designs and innovates products in simulation and then manufactures them on demand, are already accelerating hardware innovation and cutting concept to shelf times by up to 99% or more.
  4. Digitisation is eroding the borders between industries. Companies in the FATBAG group, Facebook, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Amazon and Google, now cross previously unassailable industry boundaries, which accelerates the overall rate of disruption.
  5. Matthew Griffin counts over 600 new exponential technologies, with more than 60 added each year on average, and argues the real impact comes from Exponential Combinations, when technologies are combined rather than used in isolation.

Bring the codex to your organisation

Want your leadership team ready for the next wave of disruption?

Book a keynote session, executive briefing or foresight workshop session built on The Future of Exponential Disruption. Or start with a free 15-minute expert call.

Questions and answers

Questions people ask about disruptive innovation

What is disruptive innovation?

Disruptive innovation is the creation of new products, services or business models that displace the status quo of an organisation or a whole industry. The codex argues that as exponential technologies become digitised, democratised, decentralised and demonetised, individuals as well as corporations can now find valuable problems, innovate solutions and take them global faster than ever before.

Why is the rate of disruption accelerating?

Disruption is accelerating because products are increasingly digital, society is increasingly connected and powerful technologies are easier and cheaper to access. The codex shows the average time to disrupt a global industry falling from 90 years to just a few years over the past century, with creative machines and autonomous organisations set to accelerate it further.

Could a whole industry be disrupted in a single day?

The codex argues we are approaching that point. It uses Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency, launched in June 2019, as an example: had regulators approved it, hundreds of millions of people could have been using it the same day. Add creative machines and autonomous companies, and Matthew Griffin sees industries being disrupted within hours and days.

What are creative machines?

Creative machines are AI systems that can design and innovate new products in virtual simulation, then manufacture them in real time on demand, for example using 3D printing. The codex says they can produce everything from content and software to batteries, cars, clothing, computer chips and drugs, and are already accelerating hardware innovation by up to 99% or more.

Who wrote The Future of Exponential Disruption?

The Future of Exponential Disruption was written by Matthew Griffin, Founder, President and Futurist of the 311 Institute and author of the Codex of the Future series. The second edition was published in January 2022 and runs to 89 pages. Its companion codex, The Future of Innovation and Creativity, explores creative machines in more depth.

How do I get the codex, and can 311 Institute run a session on it?

The codex is free to download as a PDF after a short form on this page. The 311 Institute also runs keynote sessions, executive briefings and foresight workshops on exponential disruption, helping leadership teams understand the forces accelerating change in their industry and what they can do to prepare for it.

Keep exploring

Related research from 311 Institute

Read the full codex.

Download The Future of Exponential Disruption.

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