Taxi Drivers
Machines can already do 37% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 78%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Taxi Drivers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 37% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2031, and 78% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 41,050 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $42,100 a year.
- Also called: Cab Driver, Taxi Cab Driver, Taxi Driver.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drive taxicabs or privately owned vehicles to transport passengers | 41% | 45% to 85% | |
| Pick up passengers at prearranged locations, at taxi stands, or by cruising streets in high-traffic areas | 27% | 30% to 75% | |
| Collect fares or vouchers from passengers, and make change or issue receipts as necessary | 6% | 45% to 85% | |
| Communicate with dispatchers by radio, telephone, or computer to exchange information and receive requests for passenger service | 5% | 30% to 60% | |
| Perform routine vehicle maintenance, such as regulating tire pressure and adding gasoline, oil, and water | 4% | 30% to 75% | |
| Vacuum and clean interiors and wash and polish exteriors of automobiles | 4% | 20% to 60% | |
| Follow relevant safety regulations and state laws governing vehicle operation, and ensure that passengers follow safety regulations | 2% | 45% to 85% | |
| Provide passengers with assistance entering and exiting vehicles, and help them with any luggage | 2% | 20% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills taxi drivers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity70% of tasks by 2035 · US median $59,050
- Highway Maintenance Workers62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,260
- Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $68,840
- Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers72% of tasks by 2035 · US median $58,640
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Taxi Drivers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2031. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of taxi drivers?
Machines can do 37% of the tasks of taxi drivers today and 78% by 2035. Most of the routine work moves to machines, and the people in the job move to oversight, judgement and client work.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-3054.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Taxi Drivers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/taxi-drivers/