Urologists
Machines can already do 22% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 41%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Urologists in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 22% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 3% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2039, and 41% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 342,720 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $265,930 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 89% for contact with people.
- Also called: Acute Care Physician, MD (Medical Doctor), Owner, Physician.
- Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diagnose or treat diseases or disorders of genitourinary organs and tracts including erectile dysfunction (ED), infertility, incontinence, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, urethral stones, or premature ejaculation | 25% | 3% to 25% | |
| Document or review patients' histories | 16% | 76% to 82% | |
| Treat urologic disorders using alternatives to traditional surgery such as extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, laparoscopy, or laser techniques | 9% | 3% to 25% | |
| Perform abdominal, pelvic, or retroperitoneal surgeries | 9% | 3% to 25% | |
| Order and interpret the results of diagnostic tests, such as prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening, to detect prostate cancer | 8% | 50% to 74% | |
| Treat lower urinary tract dysfunctions using equipment such as diathermy machines, catheters, cystoscopes, or radium emanation tubes | 8% | 3% to 25% | |
| Provide urology consultation to physicians or other health care professionals | 6% | 32% to 50% | |
| Direct the work of nurses, residents, or other staff to provide patient care | 6% | 9% to 23% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills urologists use most, most used first.
Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace
How much urologists rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, medium confidence.
- Go-to problem solver9/10
- Trust and reliability10/10
- Know-how about the organisation7/10
- Network and relationships6/10
- Mentoring and developing others7/10
- Culture and morale6/10
- Initiative beyond the role7/10
- Calm in a crisis8/10
- Bridge between teams8/10
- Reputation and influence7/10
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric38% of tasks by 2035 · US median $358,550
- Pediatric Surgeons39% of tasks by 2035 · US median $559,030
- Podiatrists36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $160,300
- Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric37% of tasks by 2035 · US median $300,080
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Urologists?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2039. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of urologists?
Machines can do 22% of the tasks of urologists today and 41% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 29-1229.03 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, medium confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Urologists: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/urologists/