Good Judgment Inc
A commercial forecasting firm, spun out of the IARPA-funded Good Judgment Project, that sells probability forecasts from professional Superforecasters to companies and governments.
At a glance
- Entity level
- Organisation
- Type
- Company (private)
- Also known as
- Good Judgment; Superforecasters
- Flagship output
- FutureFirst (latest: June 2026)
- Category
- Crowd forecasting & prediction markets
- Also covers
- Geopolitical & political risk
- Tier
- Tier 1: Originator of superforecasting; public forecasts widely cited
- Headquarters
- New York, United States
- Coverage
- Geopolitics, macro, elections
- Public access
- Freemium
- Latest activity seen
- 24 Jun 2026
- Evidence
- Active in 2025 to 26
How it produces intelligence
Aggregated probability forecasts from professional Superforecasters, updated daily, with written rationales and API access.
Risk themes
Focus regions
Links
What it publishes
| Output | Type | Cadence | Latest edition | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FutureFirst | Forecast platform | Daily | Jun 2026 | Read report | |
| Superforecasting the Fed (Substack updates) | Other | Irregular | Superforecasting the Fed: Update | 9 Dec 2025 | Read report |
| Good Judgment Open (public crowd forecasting site) | Forecast platform | Continuous | Read report |
Latest findings
Recent public risk calls by Good Judgment Inc, summarised in our own words. They are its views, not 311's. Follow each source for the original.
Claims Superforecasters beat Polymarket on 41 central bank rate decisions in 2024 to 26, with an average Brier score of 0.124 against 0.154.
24 Jun 2026 · Horizon: 2024 to 2026 track record · Source: FutureFirst service pageClaims Superforecasters beat Polymarket on 41 central bank rate decisions in 2024-26, with an average Brier score of 0.124 against 0.154.
24 Jun 2026 · Horizon: 2024-2026 track record · Source: FutureFirst service pageSuperforecasters put a 99% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its December 2025 meeting.
9 Dec 2025 · Horizon: December 2025 FOMC · Source: Superforecasting the Fed: UpdateClaims Superforecasters were on course to be about twice as accurate as Polymarket and CME futures on 2025 Fed calls, beating futures for a third straight year.
9 Dec 2025 · Horizon: 2025 track record · Source: Superforecasting the Fed: UpdateGood Judgment Open's crowd gave 99% that no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire of 28 days or more would be announced before 29 September 2025.
29 Sep 2025 · Horizon: To September 2025 · Source: GJ Open: When will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire? (final crowd forecast)
Organisations doing similar work
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Questions about Good Judgment Inc
What is Good Judgment Inc?
A commercial forecasting firm, spun out of the IARPA-funded Good Judgment Project, that sells probability forecasts from professional Superforecasters to companies and governments.
How does Good Judgment Inc produce its intelligence?
Aggregated probability forecasts from professional Superforecasters, updated daily, with written rationales and API access.
Where is Good Judgment Inc based?
Good Judgment Inc is based in New York, United States.
What does Good Judgment Inc cover?
Its work covers geopolitics, macroeconomy, elections & politics, health, technology & ai, with a focus on Global.
Profile compiled by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit from public sources. Last checked 21 Oct 2026. Listing is not a ranking or an endorsement. Evidence source. Is this your organisation? Request a correction.