Polymarket
A prediction market where users trade on the outcomes of elections, geopolitical events, economics and sport; prices are widely cited as crowd probabilities.
At a glance
- Entity level
- Organisation
- Type
- Company (private)
- Flagship output
- Event markets
- Category
- Crowd forecasting & prediction markets
- Tier
- Tier 1: Largest crypto prediction market; heavily cited in media
- Headquarters
- New York, United States
- Founded
- 2020
- Coverage
- Elections, geopolitics, macro events
- Public access
- Free
- Latest activity seen
- 31 Aug 2026
- Evidence
- Active in 2025 to 26
How it produces intelligence
Market prices from real-money trading on event contracts; US platform runs under a CFTC-designated exchange acquired via QCX.
Risk themes
Focus regions
Leadership
- Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO
Links
What it publishes
| Output | Type | Cadence | Latest edition | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event markets | Forecast platform | Continuous | Read report |
Latest findings
Recent public risk calls by Polymarket, summarised in our own words. They are its views, not 311's. Follow each source for the original.
By late August 2026, Polymarket priced a US recession by end-2026 at about 8%, down from roughly 30-35% in spring.
31 Aug 2026 · Horizon: end-2026 · Source: Prediction markets see 92% chance US avoids recession by end of 2026 (Crypto Briefing)On 2 April 2026, Polymarket priced a US-Iran ceasefire by 30 April at about 56% and by year-end at about 74%.
3 Apr 2026 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: April 6 Deadline, Day 3: Where Is the Market Betting? (StockHub)In early April 2026, traders priced oil reaching $120 before any ceasefire at roughly 74%.
3 Apr 2026 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: April 6 Deadline, Day 3: Where Is the Market Betting? (StockHub)
Organisations doing similar work
See every organisation in Crowd forecasting & prediction markets
Questions about Polymarket
What is Polymarket?
A prediction market where users trade on the outcomes of elections, geopolitical events, economics and sport; prices are widely cited as crowd probabilities.
How does Polymarket produce its intelligence?
Market prices from real-money trading on event contracts; US platform runs under a CFTC-designated exchange acquired via QCX.
Where is Polymarket based?
Polymarket is based in New York, United States.
What does Polymarket cover?
Its work covers elections & politics, geopolitics, macroeconomy, with a focus on Global.
Profile compiled by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit from public sources. Last checked 21 Oct 2026. Listing is not a ranking or an endorsement. Evidence source. Is this your organisation? Request a correction.