Metaculus
Public-benefit company running an online community where forecasters and AI bots predict questions on AI, science, geopolitics and catastrophic risk.
At a glance
- Entity level
- Organisation
- Type
- Company (private)
- Flagship output
- Metaculus community forecasts
- Category
- Crowd forecasting & prediction markets
- Tier
- Tier 1: Largest open forecasting platform; AI and geopolitical questions
- Headquarters
- Santa Monica, United States
- Coverage
- AI, geopolitics, science, catastrophic risk
- Public access
- Free
- Latest activity seen
- 17 Sep 2026
- Evidence
- Active in 2025 to 26
How it produces intelligence
Aggregated crowd forecasts from scored human forecasters, Pro Forecasters and AI bots, with tournaments and bot benchmarks.
Risk themes
Focus regions
Leadership
- Deger Turan, Chief Executive Officer (per TIME, 2025)
Links
What it publishes
| Output | Type | Cadence | Latest edition | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metaculus community forecasts | Forecast platform | Continuous | Read report | ||
| Metaculus Cup | Forecast platform | Biannual | Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup | 5 Sep 2026 | Read report |
| FutureEval (AI vs human forecasting benchmark) | Other | Irregular | Spring 2026 | 2026 | Visit site |
Latest findings
Recent public risk calls by Metaculus, summarised in our own words. They are its views, not 311's. Follow each source for the original.
AI bots took first, second and fifth places in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, ahead of most human forecasters.
17 Sep 2026 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: AI beats forecasters: Metaculus Cup coverage 2026 (explainx.ai)In the Spring 2026 FutureEval benchmark, ten Pro Forecasters still beat the ten best bots across 99 shared questions.
17 Sep 2026 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: AI beats forecasters: Metaculus Cup coverage 2026 (explainx.ai)Community forecast (12 forecasters) put US opposition to the Iran war at about 58% on 14 August 2026; the recorded value was about 56%.
14 Aug 2026 · Horizon: 14 August 2026 · Source: What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026? (Metaculus question)
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Questions about Metaculus
What is Metaculus?
Public-benefit company running an online community where forecasters and AI bots predict questions on AI, science, geopolitics and catastrophic risk.
How does Metaculus produce its intelligence?
Aggregated crowd forecasts from scored human forecasters, Pro Forecasters and AI bots, with tournaments and bot benchmarks.
Where is Metaculus based?
Metaculus is based in Santa Monica, United States.
What does Metaculus cover?
Its work covers technology & ai, geopolitics, health, climate & environment, with a focus on Global.
Profile compiled by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit from public sources. Last checked 21 Oct 2026. Listing is not a ranking or an endorsement. Evidence source. Is this your organisation? Request a correction.