Waymo is scaling fast across the US but only two states matter

Waymo, the commercial robotaxi company, is adding new cities fast and its ramp up looks expansive - both in geographic reach and in ridership. And by almost every measure, it is - until you pay attention to where the bulk of those robotaxis are actually showing up.

The numbers over the past two years reflect the kind of commercial rollout you’d expect from a deep-pocketed company like Waymo, which spun out of Google and still counts Alphabet as its majority owner. In September 2024, Waymo was operating in just three cities - Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Today, it offers robotaxi service in 15 US cities, with most of those commercial launches occurring in the past year. Ridership has skyrocketed, too, with Waymo now averaging 500,000 paid self-driving robotaxi rides every week.

But a closer look at its fleet shows a company concentrating its efforts in just two states. About 80% of Waymo’s roughly 4,000 robotaxis are in California and Texas, and Texas is where the action is now: Waymo’s fleet there has grown by nearly half in the past three weeks, fuelled by a new Chinese-built minivan the company is betting will help it scale, even as tariffs drive up its costs.

The other 800 or so vehicles are spread across cities in other states, including Arizona and Florida, another burgeoning hot spot. Most are the familiar white Jaguar I-Pace electric SUVs, but a growing number are the new minivans - a modified Zeekr RT that Waymo has branded “Ojai.”

The Future of Mobility and Transport, a keynote by futurist Matthew Griffin

Waymo’s focus on California is no surprise. It is headquartered in Silicon Valley, and much of its early testing and development work was conducted there. Plus, a segment of the population there is inclined to adopt tech at its earliest stages.

The recent growth in Texas is more interesting. Waymo has increased its Texas fleet by 49% in the past three weeks, according to state vehicle registrations and data from the Texas Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Tracker. As of this week, Waymo had 1,102 autonomous vehicles registered in the state.

Waymo first launched in commercial service in Austin through a partnership with Uber in March 2025, letting riders hail its robotaxis through the Uber app. Since then, the company has expanded its robotaxi services in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.

Waymo’s Texas fleet remained relatively static for most of the summer, inching up from about 600 vehicles in June to more than 700 by the end of August. Then came September, when the fleet surged, driven by an influx of new Ojai minivans, which now make up about a third of Waymo’s Texas fleet.

Expect that share to grow.

The Ojai robotaxi, equipped with Waymo’s sixth-generation self-driving system, is supposed to help Waymo reach mass scale. Its interior is built to withstand heavy use, and it comes with an upgraded rider interface and Google’s Gemini AI, which acts as an in-car assistant for riders.

Strip away that technology, though, and the Ojai is a minivan made by Zeekr, a brand owned by China’s Geely Holding Group which also owns Volvo. The Ojai is built on Zeekr’s SEA-M platform, a shared vehicle platform designed for uses like robotaxis and delivery vans. The base Zeekr vehicles are shipped to the US without any Chinese connected-car technology on board. Once they arrive, the vehicles are sent to Waymo’s Arizona factory, where they are outfitted with Waymo’s self-driving system.

The Ojai is supposed to drive down costs and ultimately help Waymo reach profitability. For now, though, tariffs are cutting any savings. Under current US trade policy, vehicles built in China face steep import tariffs, raising Waymo’s costs for every Ojai it brings into the country.

Waymo appears willing to absorb that cost. New York-based research firm Moffett Nathanson, which tracks Ojai imports using detailed shipping records, said in its latest report that Waymo is on track to bring 5,100 of the vehicles into the US by the end of the year.

Where will all those Ojai vehicles go? Texas is certainly on the list. But Florida, where Waymo operates in three cities, and newer markets like Las Vegas will likely see an influx as well.

First published on Fanatical Futurist on 24 September 2026.

311 Intelligence

What this means

Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit

The big shift is from robotaxi pilots to robotaxi fleets. Waymo has gone from three cities in 2024 to 15 today and now averages 500,000 paid rides a week. Our Starburst data tracks this directly: we rate Autonomous Vehicles, robotaxis scaling from pilots to paid city services, an Explore trend with wide use expected by 2032. The detail that matters is where the growth lands, with about 80% of the fleet in just two states.

What it means by sector.

• Transport and mobility: Waymo's Uber partnership in Austin lets riders hail robotaxis through the Uber app. We track Robotaxi Ride-Hail Marketplaces, ride-hail apps becoming marketplaces for other firms' driverless fleets, as an Explore trend with wide use by 2031.
• Carmakers: the Ojai is a Zeekr minivan from China's Geely Holding Group, fitted out in Arizona. We track Chinese Carmaker Expansion, Chinese car brands winning share abroad, as a Prepare trend with wide use by 2028.
• Trade and policy: steep US tariffs on Chinese-built vehicles are raising Waymo's costs on every Ojai. We track Tariff-Driven Car Localisation, tariff walls pushing carmakers to build where they sell, as a Prepare trend with wide use by 2029.

What to do now.

• If you operate in California or Texas, plan for robotaxis as a real part of local transport now, not in a decade.
• Watch where new fleets go next, such as Florida and Las Vegas, and test what driverless rides could mean for your staff and customers there.
• Factor tariffs and supply chains into any fleet or vehicle plans, since trade policy can erase the savings of cheaper hardware.

The Starburst technologies behind this story

From the 311 Technology Starburst (first product, expected wide use and readiness):

Technology	Category	First product	Wide use	Action	TRL
Machine Vision	Intelligence	1981	2023	Act now	9
Lidar	Sensors	1971	2030	Prepare	9
4D Imaging Radar	Sensors	2019	2030	Prepare	9
Conversational Interfaces	User Interfaces	2011	2025	Act now	9

And the trends they feed, from the 311 Trends Starburst:

Trend	Wide use	Action
Autonomous Vehicles	2032	Explore
Robotaxi Ride-Hail Marketplaces	2031	Explore
Chinese Carmaker Expansion	2028	Prepare
Tariff-Driven Car Localisation	2029	Prepare

How this moves the trend

Waymo has been building towards fleet scale for years. It first opened its self-driving taxi service to the public in 2018, and months later announced plans to buy 62,000 self-driving cars from Fiat Chrysler. In 2021 Zoox unveiled what could be Amazon's first robo-taxi. Today the Ojai shows Waymo betting on a purpose-built minivan to reach mass scale, even with tariffs in the way.

Go deeper with 311

• The 311 Starburst Centre: every technology and trend above, with timelines and readiness.
• 311 Vantage: ask what robotaxis mean for your organisation and get a plain English executive brief.
• The Exponential Technology Codex and the Annual Trends Codex: the technologies and trends reshaping every industry.
• Book a briefing or keynote on the future of mobility and transport for your board or leadership team.