Scenario planning
Plan for more than one future.
Scenario planning that maps several plausible futures and tests your strategy against each one, so your plans still hold when conditions change.
Scenario planning is a foresight method in which an organisation describes several plausible futures, rather than one forecast, and tests its strategy against each of them. The 311 Institute builds scenarios across the near, medium and deep future from the technologies and trends it tracks, then helps your leaders choose a direction, timings and signposts to watch.
Outputs
What you receive
- Several plausible futures for your organisation, described in plain language
- The forces and uncertainties that drive them
- Your strategy tested against each scenario
- Clear choices, timings and signposts to watch
How 311 does it
Anticipate, Assess, Act
Every 311 Institute foresight engagement follows the same three steps, researched by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
Anticipate
What is coming? We scan for the signals, technologies and trends that matter to you, and when each is likely to arrive.
Assess
Why should we care? We work out what each change means for your organisation, your sector, your markets and your people.
Act
What do we do about it? We turn the insight into decisions, signposts to watch and clear next steps your leaders own.
Who it is for
Built for the people who decide
Boards and executive teams
Who need a strategy that survives more than one future.
Strategy teams
Who want scenarios that cover the futures that matter, not just the likely one.
Risk leaders
Who need to stress-test plans against shocks.
Governments and policy bodies
Who plan for the long term.
How it works
What happens
- FrameWe agree the question, the time horizon and the decisions the scenarios must inform.
- DriversThe 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit maps the forces and uncertainties that matter most.
- ScenariosWe build several plausible futures and describe each in plain language.
- Test and decideYour leaders test the strategy against each one and agree the next steps.
Formats
In person first, virtual when you need it
In person (recommended)
In your boardroom, offices or offsite, anywhere in the world.
Virtual
A video session when travel is not possible.
Scenario workshop
Your leadership team builds and tests scenarios with Matthew in the room.
Scenario report
Written scenarios from the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, presented to your board.
Fees depend on the format, location and scope. Send a brief and we reply within one working day with a proposal.
Proof
Scenario work and research
- Strategic Foresight for LeadersCodex, fourth edition, March 2024, 137 pages
- Future of Work: One Person, 10,000 HandsForesight study, October 2026, 181 pages
- The Future of DisruptionWorkshop, University of Oxford
- SamsungShaped their 50-year Centennial vision of the future.
- WPPKey role in their global restructuring for the AI era.
“Led a 4-day think tank… far exceeded our expectations… incredible breadth of knowledge”
Robert Dessert, Qualcomm
“Insightful, high energy and thought-provoking… grounded in real actions”
EY
Foresight tools
The 311 tools behind the work
The 311 Starburst
More than 1,000 emerging technologies and more than 1,000 trends, mapped by when each is expected to reach the mainstream.
ExploreThe 311 Foresight Atlas
The world's foresight and futures organisations, listed A to Z and never ranked.
ExploreThe daily foresight brief
Every day the 311 Foresight Tower reads the world's news on 15 global categories and writes a short brief.
ExploreThe 311 Prediction Benchmark
We publish every prediction before it happens, then mark it against a public source, hits and misses together.
ExploreStrategic Foresight for Leaders
A 137-page codex by Matthew Griffin on how to run your own strategic foresight programmes. Free to download.
ExploreTrusted by leadership teams at
and more than 500 organisations in 102 countries
- Accenture
- Adidas
- Coca-Cola
- IATA
- KPMG
- Microsoft
- PepsiCo
- Qualcomm
- Samsung
- Siemens Energy
- Workday
Answers
Common questions
What is scenario planning?
A foresight method in which an organisation describes several plausible futures, rather than one forecast, and tests its strategy against each of them.
How many scenarios do we need?
Enough to cover the futures that would change your decisions. We agree the number with you when we frame the question.
How is scenario planning different from forecasting?
A forecast gives one most likely answer. Scenarios describe several plausible futures, so your strategy is ready for more than one outcome.
Can we learn to run scenario planning ourselves?
Yes. The Strategic Foresight for Leaders codex sets out the methods, and a foresight workshop can train your team.
How much does scenario planning cost?
Fees depend on the format, location and scope. Send a brief and we reply within one working day with a proposal.
Briefing for your board or leadership team
A private, closed-door briefing on what is coming and what to do about it, in person first, anywhere in the world.
Enquire
Tell us what you need.
Matthew works in person first, so tell us where and when. We reply within one working day.
Related
Other ways to work with Matthew
Keynotes
Matthew Griffin brings the future to your stage, in language your audience can act on.
ExploreExecutive briefings
Private briefings for boards and leadership teams.
ExploreLeadership workshops
Hands-on sessions that turn the future into decisions.
ExploreCommission a report
Research on the question your organisation needs answered.
Explore